3 keys to deciding if the time is right.

By Agronomist Brandon Hulme

Every spring, Mother Nature likes to play games — teasing us with warm days, then hitting us with cold snaps and soggy spells. When the first window opens to hit the field, it always comes with a big question: Do I wait for a better forecast, or do I go now because the next chance might be who-knows-when?

The general rule of thumb? Soil conditions matter more than soil temperature. So dry, fit soil is often a better bet than warm but wet soil.

In a perfect world, we’d have dry soil, 50-degree-plus temps, and a two-week forecast of light rain and sunshine. But this is the Midwest — perfect doesn’t happen often. So, here are three key things to consider when deciding whether it’s time to plant:

1. Soil Moisture

Seeds need moisture — about 30% of their weight — to germinate. Too dry, and nothing starts. Too wet, and you risk compaction, crusting and uneven emergence.

Here’s how to assess if your soil is ready for planting. Dig down 2-2.5 inches (where the seed will go), grab a handful of soil and make a fist:

  • If it sticks together and doesn’t crumble, it’s too wet — compaction is likely.
  • If it breaks apart easily, conditions are fit.
  • If it won’t hold together at all, it’s likely too dry — check for light rain in the forecast to support germination.

2. Soil Temperature

You need 50°F at the 2-inch depth to ensure germination. Rising daytime temps are a good sign. But if a cold spell — or worse, cold rain — is in the 48-hour forecast, hold off.

The first two days after planting are critical. Cold shock during that initial water uptake can damage or kill seedlings, leading to poor stands and reduced yield potential.

3. Weather Forecast

We’ve all had our gripes about the accuracy of the local weather forecast — but it’s still the best tool we’ve got. Watch the 48-hour forecast closely to avoid cold, wet weather. Then look out seven days for rising temps to help push soil temps up and keep germination on track.

Making the call to plant is one of the most important decisions you’ll make all season. Planting conditions set the foundation for yield and profitability — so it’s worth slowing down and getting it right.

Early planting continues to show strong yield advantages year after year. At Champion Seed, we focus on corn hybrids and soybean varieties with excellent emergence and vigor, backed by top-notch seed treatments to give your crop the best start possible. With today’s genetics and treatments, you can plant earlier with more confidence. But those early windows still carry risk.

That’s why keeping these three considerations in mind can help tip the odds in your favor and set your crop up for a strong season ahead.